January 6, 2025 — Elon Musk, Live Interview
A bold prediction. A surgeon responds. The clock is running.
Deadline: January 6, 2028 — 3 years from the claim.
In three years, we will have fully autonomous surgical robots that outperform human surgeons at scale.
Elon Musk — January 6, 2025
Judge for yourself. We've bookmarked the moment it was said.
As someone who operates daily, here is what full surgical autonomy really requires.
Surgeons interpret subtle tissue tension, unexpected bleeding, and anatomical variation in real time. Current AI can classify images — it cannot yet read an operating field the way a trained surgeon does.
FDA and CE clearance for an autonomous surgical device would require years of clinical trials, post-market surveillance, and a liability framework that does not yet exist. Three years is ambitious for paperwork alone.
Robotic-assisted surgery (da Vinci, etc.) is remarkable — but it amplifies the surgeon, it does not replace them. Fully autonomous closed-loop surgery remains an open research problem.
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